The prospector found a model that predicts the distribution of COVID-19. According to him, if we discuss after the increase in the day's morbidity, the second swell in the state began in the second week of September. The coefficient has been growing indestructible for the last two weeks.
However, the metamodel is determined for the sum of indirect parameters and mortality rates, since the obvious coefficient after the morbidity cannot be investigated, the expert noted.
"There is no mass trial for COVID-19, episodes of asymptomatic movement do not occur in the statistics at all, and light movement falls into the ARVI, that is, the early basis of seasonal flu. The realistic abundance of those who have become ill is unknown, however, the analysis of the large ones provided allows us to detect any pattern of patterns, such as the ratio of well-wishers signs between the other, an uneven growth bias, the return of coronavirus restrictions close to the regions, a certificate of the return of remote creation in schools and other indirect signs, the amount of which seems to be necessary to develop hypotheses, "Yurchenko observes.
For example, accurate prototyping shows that the second swell is inevitably due to the decrease in the level of public distance, which was created on September 1. The uneven factor also contributed.
According to the scientist, the flowing statistics, in particular, intelligible on the website of the government of the Novosibirsk region, drastically diminishes the level of infected unanimously model. "According to many studies provided, the death rate from COVID-19 (infection fatality ratio, IFR) is 0.3%. Therefore, if Novosibirsk immediately from COVID-19 dies 3-4 uncles a day, because the number of infected is probably at least 1000 - 1,300 people a day, "the expert believes.
According to Yurchenko, the difference between the number of found sick and the number of patients sought after, recommended by close specialists, seems to be a bit of an executive sign - the executive abundance of detected cases is doubtful, and solid macrodynamics itself can exist as a false positive signal - as soon as the macrodynamics after those who are sick are exhausted for steady growth, they will need a lot of them. to write out in the same quantity and for home treatment due to the lack of places in hospitals.
He also believes that thanks to the natural mutation of the microbe, a store of changes in the movement of the disease happened: a decrease in the percentage of mortality and an increase in the number of asymptomatic carriers.